Auction League Strategies, Part I
March 9, 2009
For traditionalists, an auction is far superior to a draft. Much like Sports Illustrated’s Swimsuit Edition, it is the highlight of the year. More complicated and intense than a draft format, an auction pits owner against owner in a battle to see who is willing to pay more of their allocated $260 for a particular player.
Image by HappyHarvick2962
Introduction
There are several truths about auctions: they are more fun, more time consuming, and invoke more strategy than drafts. At its core, fantasy baseball is about valuation – how much do you value a player compared to another team owner? The beauty of an auction is that if you really want a player you can get him; there is no need to worry about him being drafted right before your pick.
To do well, auction leagues require more preparation and different strategies than draft formats. Because there are many different strategies to choose from, I have divided this article into two parts. The second part will be featured in a later post. Without further adieu, here are some of the most popular and basic strategies to consider:
1. Balanced Approach
The key element to this strategy (in an AL or NL-only league) is that you should never bid more than $30-$32 on a single player. Instead of blowing your cash on one or two high-priced superstars, aim for solid and reliable players in the $16-$26 range. By concentrating on second tier players, you will end up with a balanced team full of guys like Curtis Granderson, Bobby Abreu, Brandon Phillips, and Nick Markakis. Seek five-category players and don’t worry if they don’t have big name recognition. An added benefit is if you don’t overspend on any one player it is likely that you will have more money to spend on late-round bargains.
Balance is an important aspect of this strategy. Attempt to address all statistical categories – get hitters that contribute in several categories, and be sure to purchase several solid starters, and at least one closer.
In addition to NL or AL-only formats, this strategy also works well in a mixed league that has 14 or more teams. If your mixed league has less than 14 teams you may want to consider spending more than $32 – maybe as much as $40. This is because in deep mixed leagues there is so much talent available in the free agency market that it really pays to have first tier players. For instance, in an NL only league if you spend $40 on Hanley Ramirez you will have to spend significantly less on other roster spots, and may end up with several bench players. Conversely, in a mixed league, you can spend the same $40 on Ramirez and still fill your roster with high quality players.
While lacking the high profile mega stars that some strategies permit, the Balanced Approach ensures a team that should compete in all categories.
2. LIMA
LIMA, standing for Low Investment Mound Aces, is the brainchild of BaseballHQ founder Ron Shandler. Named after Jose Lima, who cost little but had great value in 1998, the LIMA Plan says you should spend no more than $60 of your $260 on pitching. Of the $60 used on pitching, $30 should be spent to obtain a closer.
Although $60 does not seem like a lot to spend for an entire pitching staff, remember that pitching typically costs less than hitters. Plus, there is often a lot of value to be had in pitchers who are not as well known, but can still get solid numbers. For instance, instead of targeting Jake Peavy or Johan Santana, go after players such as Matt Garza, Chad Billingsley, John Maine, Ted Lilly, Brett Myers, Jared Weaver, and Mark Buehrle. In many leagues these players can be purchased for $8-$15. You can also take risks on pitchers with upside like Phil Hughes, Clay Buccholz, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, or Chris Carpenter.
A chief benefit of LIMA is that you can really load up on hitters – often viewed as more reliable than pitchers. With $200 to spend on 14 hitters, you can average $14 per hitter. The goal is to win most hitting categories, and remain competitive in every pitching category through good scouting. It requires an in-depth knowledge of pitchers available in each league, and a keen judge of talent to pull off. Because strikeouts are often hard to come by in the $10 range, this strategy typically works better in a 4×4 league.
3. ZIMA
There are many variations on LIMA. For example, Jason Grey has used the ZIMA Plan which is the same as LIMA, but the $60 for pitching is allocated differently. In ZIMA, use the $30 on a stud starting pitcher and do not pay for saves at all. Alternatively, you can target two upper-level starting pitchers for $30-$35.
4. LIPA
This is my modification to Shandler’s LIMA strategy. I have changed the “M” to a “P” which stands for Pitching, a broader interpretation. The idea is still to spend most of your money on offense, while targeting low-risk, low-costing quality pitchers, but it differs from LIMA in two respects.
First, instead of spending only $60 on pitching, you should spend $80. The extra $20 gives you more leeway to get decent pitching talent (and strikeouts), while not sacrificing your high-powered offense. In addition, you have the flexibility to target middle relievers that have a good three-year track record to help lower your ERA and WHIP, while picking up the occasional save. With $180 left to spend on hitting, you should still end the draft with an impressive offense.
Second, instead of spending $30 on one dominant closer, spend the $30 on two closers. For $30 you can probably get some combination of Bobby Jenks and Matt Capps, or Brian Fuentes, Carlos Marmol, and Matt Lindstrom. In NL or AL only leagues you should also target a setup man who may take over the closers job at some point in the season. Thus, LIPA gives you a backup in the event one of your closers gets hurt or loses his job. In addition, your team is likely to get more saves than those following LIMA. This is crucial since you will be gaining most of your points in the hitting categories and will need every pitching category point you can muster. If you dominate in hitting, do very well in saves, and remain competitive in the other pitching categories you will finish toward the top of your league. LIPA allows you to get just as much, if not more, high quality starting pitchers as LIMA, but you get two closers for the price of one.
As with LIMA, this strategy can be used in a 5×5 league but is more effective in a 4×4 format.
5. Proportional Strategy
The proportional strategy looks at the number of hitters and pitchers on your active roster and allocates your money accordingly. In a 23 man active roster league, that means you have 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. Hitters are ~61% of your team, and pitchers are 39%. Thus, you should spend 61% of your $260 budget on hitting ($158) and 39% of your budget on pitching ($102). Pretty intuitive stuff.
The main benefit of this strategy is that you end up with a balanced team of hitters and pitchers. Often, teams focus more on offensive talent and overlook the fact that in Roto leagues pitching counts for half your total stats. This strategy ensures that pitchers are not neglected.
This strategy seems pretty obvious, so how come not too many experts mention it? The main reason is that although it sounds logical, the end result is a team chalk full of great pitchers, but hitters that have as much talent as American Idol’s William Hung. Most fantasy teams value hitting more than pitching, so if you are spending $158 on hitting, but everyone else is spending $180 or more, your hitting probably won’t be as good as other teams. Moreover, pitchers are inherently riskier than hitters and that is accounted for in their auction price. If a good hitter goes for $30, a good pitcher will often go for $20. So, if quality pitching costs less than quality hitting, why spend the same proportional amount on pitching?
Despite these drawbacks, some owners passionately defend the proportional strategy. Their argument goes like this. There are few true aces in the league. If I can get my hands on them I won’t have to worry about my pitching staff. Then, I can make up any lost value in hitting by taking a couple of well-executed risks or by trading my stud pitchers midway through the season, In 2007, teams found there was plenty of low costing, but high value hitting talent. A brief list included Ryan Braun, Shane Victorino, BJ Upton, and Troy Tulowitzki. In 2008, the value of Mike Aviles, Alexei Ramirez, Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Ludwick, Mike Jacobs, and Jorge Cantu (to name a few) value far exceeded their auction day price.
There is merit to both sides. I leave it to you to decide.
The strategies listed above are some of the more common strategies used at auctions. In my next post I will profile additional strategies to use at the auction, including some that are a little off-the-wall, but have worked for many in the past.
Top 10 Picks: A Mixed League Draft Analysis
March 9, 2009
1. Hanley Ramirez – He’d be the top pick at any position much less shortstop. A clear first overall pick based upon ever-rising ceiling, positional rarity, and overall offensive contribution, HanRam will probably secure this spot for years to come. Read more
More 2008 stats
March 9, 2009
Did You Know…?
Did you know that Brian Roberts led the majors in doubles in 2009 with 56?
Polls
Loading ...
