A-Rod’s injury changes everything…but how drastically?
March 7, 2009
Welcome to my first column, I’m Jesse Mendelson. You can read my bio on the About Us page, but let me welcome you with a few basic pieces of information about me. First, I’m opinionated, and welcome all comments (except stupid ones). Second, I play in two leagues – one is a 12-team mixed draft keeper league, the other a 10-team AL-only auction league. I’ll write a lot about both of them, if only because I think it’s very helpful to provide a frame of reference and real-life examples of what I’m talking about. Third, I’m very very very in favor of maintaining an active fantasy roster (read: I trade a lot), and people who are risk-averse when it comes to trades will lose nine times out of ten. I’ve seen it time and again, so don’t let it happen to you. Anyway, on to the column.
You all know that Alex Rodriguez’s hip injury changes his value, but the two big questions are: 1) how much does it change his value, especially for those in keeper leagues, and 2) what does it do to his teammates’ value? I’ll answer both, right here.
First, what does it do to his value? First of all, it depends on what ends up happening with his injury. We just found out that worst-case scenario is out till July or August, but then the doctor said that he may be able to play through it all year and delay surgery (which the Yankees apparently want him to do). Now to me, any surgery that would keep him out 4 months can’t be that easy to play through, so either way his value is reduced. But how much?
Lets first take worst-case scenario – ARod’s out till the All Star Break. In a non-keeper league, a whole lot – at least 10 rounds. ARod is a consensus top 3 pick and I just couldn’t justify picking ARod in the first 10 rounds for half a season. But how much his value drops in a keeper league is a much bigger question. I’ll give you real-life examples from my own leagues – first, in my AL-only auction league, ARod consistently garners the highest auction value, and last year went for $55 (the guy who insists on having him won’t be outbid so it probably could’ve been $60 or higher if someone had gone that high). In that league, you can keep any player below $40, which means that even if ARod goes somewhere in the $30-35 range he’s a huge value, but still very expensive (only about 8 players, and no pitchers, go for more than that). In my Mixed draft league, keepers are a 2-round penalty (draft in the 6th, keep the following year in the 4th), so do you sacrifice a top 10 pick for 2 months of ARod? If you pick him in the 6th round, he is definitely a great value next year in the 4th round (assuming he can completely recover from this injury), but how much do you sacrifice this year? Lots of top players are still left in the 6th or 7th round, so is 2 months worth of ARod better than 6 months of, say, Roy Oswalt or Rafael Furcal?
My advice is, given worst-case scenario cut about $20-30 of ARod’s value in an auction league, and I wouldn’t pick him above the 10th round in a mixed draft league. Someone will probably pick him higher than that, or pay more for that, and I wouldn’t get caught up in that – he may very well put up great numbers for that half a year, but even ARod won’t outpace a guy who you have for a whole season. And remember – you can always trade for him.
Next lets look at best-case – ARod plays all year, through the pain. In this scenario, he’s got to be a first round pick – if only because of what happened with Pujols last year. In case you don’t recall, Albert fell to the second round in most leagues because of his elbow problem, and made his owners very happy when he played through it and won the NL MVP. ARod’s ceiling is too high to pass on him in the first round. I don’t know that I’d take him top 5, but I would take him in the second half of the first round for sure. And for an auction league, I’d expect him to go for as much as before – maybe a few dollars less.
I’m famously risk-averse when it comes to drafting and auctioning (maybe because, as one buffoon I play with insists, I focus all on name value and ignore all stats – and then I promptly beat him every year), but with ARod, you go heavy, or you don’t go at all. Having said that, I’d rather have a full year of a top-6 pick than ARod for two-plus months.
The second question is what does ARod’s injury do to his teammates? I think the answer is not much – Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter aren’t affected a great deal, and I think Mark Teixeira is too good to be affected considerably. I think that one guy who benefits a lot is Hideki Matsui – he will probably become the clean-up hitter, which means he’ll hit behind Teixeira, and probably see a good number of fastballs to drive. Xavier Nady, will be hitting higher, but probably with fewer runners on base, so I would see his value shrink a bit. The big winner here is Cody Ransom – he is currently slated to replace ARod at 3rd base. Ransom, who has a sixty inch vertical leap (check out his YouTube videos if you don’t believe me) and has been called by teammates as the best athlete on the team, will – barring a trade – receive the lion’s share of at bats with ARod on the DL. He’s 33 years old, and has just 183 major league at bats, but did hit .302 with 4 homers and 8 rbi, and has been called everything from a “professional” to a “hardworker” to having a lot of “experience” by Girardi and Cashman, so unless something changes, expect Ransom to be playing, and starting, and absolutely worth a pick. I just wouldn’t recommend paying more than a couple bucks for him – just because he plays for the Yankees, there are many better 3rd baseman out there.
Best Gambles of 2009: Part I
March 7, 2009
Every season there are a handful of players that astute Fantasy GMs are willing to gamble on. Whether that gamble pays off usually depends on reading between the numbers to determine whether a poor season is a statistical fluke or anomaly, or whether improved health favors a return to past glory. Here are a few smart gambles Read more
Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Draft Mistakes
March 7, 2009
1. Not Preparing For Your Draft/Auction
It shocks us how many people wing a fantasy baseball draft or auction. The draft is the most important day of the season, and your draft performance is the single greatest forecaster of your team’s success.
At the very least, print out Fantasy Baseball 101’s rankings or buy a magazine and use it! It’s easy to draft Miguel Cabrera in the first two rounds, but come round 18, who do you draft – Manny Delcarmen or Nick Punto? If you have a comprehensive list of overall and positional rankings, you’ll be able to make a better decision. For experienced players, we recommend taking these rankings and tweaking them to your own preferences.
2. Overvaluing Rookies
For every Evan Longoria there is an Alex Gordon, Todd Van Poppel, or Felix Pie who fail to live up to the hype. We recommend valuing proven veterans over unproven rookies. Instead, save the rookies for the end of the draft or your reserve roster. If an auction draft, you can still target rookies, but be sure not to overpay.
Think of it like this: what’s the best Felix Pie will do this season? Then think, is that better than what Raul Ibanez or even Melvin Mora will do? There’s a lot to be said for proven talent. We know drafting rookies is often more fun, but keep your eye on the prize, slugger.
3. Throwing A Category
In most Roto leagues it is exceedingly difficult to win your league by purposely throwing a category. Occasionally I have purposely violated this rule, and succeeded, but here’s the concern: your team must dominate in ever other category to accumulate enough points to win. Assume you throw batting average and draft a team full of Adam Dunn’s. What happens if you are also weak in steals? Or if your closer(s) get injured and/or lose their jobs? Don’t concede any territory – fight your competition on every front.
One caveat, in H2H leagues there are times when throwing a category can make sense.
4. Bidding Too Much On Too Few
Back in 1995 I convinced a manager in my league to bid $50 each on four players: Barry Bonds, Matt Williams, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine. He got all four, and spent $210 of his allotted $260, leaving him with $50 to get 19 players. That year Barry Bonds smashed 46 homers and Williams hit 38. Maddux and Glavine won a combined 42 games. Yet, my friend’s team finished dead last in the standings. Remember, you need to draft a full team and a few superstars will not be enough to help a team full of scrubs.
In most auction leagues you have $260 for 23 players, or $11.3 per player. Except for the very best talent in the league, we recommend staying below $35 for any one player. And you should almost never bid more than $45. Try to get your best talent in the $15-$25 range.
5. Not Having A Strategy
There are countless fantasy baseball strategies that managers use on draft day. You should pick one or create one of your own. I don’t care if it’s as simple as drafting the best overall player available according to FB 101’s rankings, or as intricate as Ron Shandler’s LIMA plan, you should have a plan of attack. A strategy will provide structure to your draft and give you a better chance of success than a haphazard approach.
6. Relying Exclusively On Last Year’s Stats
This is one of the biggest pitfalls for fantasy baseball novices. Magazines, internet rankings, and countless blogs focus on a player’s stats from the prior year. And there’s no question that if a player hit 30 homers the year before, there is reason to believe that he can hit 30 homers again this year. But similar to the stock market, past performance is not a guaranteed indicator of future success.
Use past performance as a guide, but base your rankings on what you (or the experts) project the player will do in the upcoming season, as that performance is the only one that matters for your team.
7. Valuing Wins Over ERA And WHIP
Some may disagree, but I believe consistent performances in ERA and WHIP are better indicators of a pitcher’s talent than wins. Wins are based on factors often outside the pitcher’s control, like run support. A good pitcher on a poor hitting team may get less wins that a poor pitcher on a good hitting team. Sure, you can end up with someone like Jose DeLeon, who had 5 wins for the Cardinals in 1991 despite a 2.71 ERA. But at least he helped your ERA and WHIP.
If you stick to pitchers with good ERA’s and WHIP’s, you’ll do well in those categories, and you’ll find that they’ll often surprise you with a lot of wins even if they are on a poor hitting team (e.g. Tim Lincecum, Ricky Nolasco, etc). Conversely, get a pitcher on a good hitting team who routinely gets double-digit wins, and he can kill your ERA and WHIP (e.g. Andy Pettite, Edwin Jackson, Jeff Suppan, or Livian Hernandez)
8. Drafting Based On Name Recognition
Ken Griffey Jr. is a household name. So is Tom Glavine. Neither should be high on your draft list. They were good in 1996, but are no longer making the highlights reel on Baseball Tonight. Dig deeper and draft players who are in, or about to enter, the prime of their careers. Leave the over the hill guys for the suckers in your league to draft.
9. Spending Too Much On Your Favorite Player(s)
Many fantasy baseball owners do whatever it takes to get their favorite player, whether it means drafting him early or paying extra in an auction. Unless your favorite ballplayer is a bonafide star, like Albert Pujols, avoid the temptation.
Instead, use it to your advantage. In 1993, everyone in my league knew David Cone was my favorite player. I purposely nominated him, and when one of my friends bid me up on him, I stopped bidding and stuck him with Cone for a good $10 more than he was worth. The lesson: don’t let emotion interfere with sound judgment.
10. Buying Into Spring Training Hype
Spring Training is a glorious time of the year. After the long winter, there is nothing better than reading the reports and rumors coming out of Florida and Arizona. But don’t believe everything you hear or see. Spring Training stats are often an aberration that have little correlation to in-season performance. Take Emmanuel Burris. Last year, Burris was tops in the majors in steals during spring training, yet he only stole 13 in the regular season.
There are countless other examples. In the early 90’s the Mets had a prospect named Darren Reed who would lead their team in homers every spring. Yet, he could never win a full time job in the majors, and has since vanished into baseball history obscurity.
Pay attention to position battles and injuries in spring training, but do not get overly excited by stats or player’s boasting about their upcoming performance.
Preparing For Your Draft In One Hour Or Less
March 7, 2009
Finally, the six-month slumber is over.
Fantasy baseball diehards have been waiting since October for the calendar to flip to March, so they can begin the grueling task of researching, analyzing, assessing and ranking players in preparation for their league drafts. Some chart statistics, weigh whether a player is in their “contract year” and even do mock drafts to strategize. And some fantasy baseball columnists type out thousands of words to break down scenarios and weigh options over the course of several weeks of preparation.
This is not one of those columns.
This is for those roto managers who are competitive, but don’t spend countless hours doing anything of the above. These managers roll out of bed the morning of the draft knowing only what they’ve gleaned from SportsCenter and their local newspaper. Sure, you could just set your computer to auto-draft, but you’re a purist who believes you should truly have ownership of your team, and that means physically selecting the players who will populate your team.
So, for those of you who – like me – are born procrastinators, here’s how you can best prepare for your fantasy baseball draft in one hour:
1. Know your place (3 minutes) – First things first, check what your position is in the draft. If you draft first, that means the field is wide open to you. If you draft last, you’ll have to watch the others in your league snap up the cream of the crop. But, if your league does a snake format draft (in a 10-team league, the rounds go 1-10, 10-1, 1-10, and so on), so you could get back-to-back picks. That really is helpful when you are wringing your hands in the middle rounds over filling certain needs and can’t decide. Knowing where you stand in the draft order helps your state of mind and approach to the draft.
2. Identify the top players available (11 minutes) – Figure out who the top 10-20 players are in the mix. Assuming you’re not in a keeper league and are starting with a blank slate, you’re going to want to land a stud who will carry your team to greatness… or at least respectability. With any luck, you’ll actually get two, maybe even three of these players (depending on the size of your league).
a. Five-category players (average, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases, runs) don’t grow on trees, so find those guys who will give you a boost in multiple categories (such as Jimmy Rollins, David Wright and Alex Rodriguez). They provide a balanced attack, and they only take up one roster spot, rather than drafting three one-dimensional players to get the same production.
b. Look at the power hitters who are going to generate home runs, RBIs and (sometimes surprisingly) runs. Despite his poor average and lack of speed, Dan Uggle tied for 32nd in the majors in runs scored last year. Ryan Howard was 14th. These guys will be snatched up quickly, so be prepared to jump on them.
c. Target a few elite pitchers (Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett jump to mind) who you can count on to win at least 15 games, strike out more than 150 and keep their ERA under the inflation rate. But don’t go crazy with them. Pitchers are by-and-large more of a gamble when it comes to betting the farm and using your top pick to land a hurler. If they get an arm injury, their season could be shot. A position player with a balky knee can still pound 25 HRs and drive in 80. A pitcher with a strained forearm can sit on the shelf for 2-3 months.
3. Blue light special on closers (5 minutes) – In every draft I’ve participated for the past 10 years, there inevitably is a run on closers. Your best bet is to identify the second- and third-tier closers in case it gets to you and top-shelf firemen like Jonathan Papelbon, K-Rod and Joe Nathan are gone. Be ready to use your third- or even second-round pick on a closer. It sucks, but you also don’t want to be the team in August with 10 saves, pulling in one point and trailing the third-place team by three points.
4. Check the warranty (7 minutes) – This can be a time-consuming activity (considering you only have 60 minutes), but you absolutely have to check FB 101 and other places to determine if any players will start the season on the disabled list or are coming off surgery and in rehabilitation. You don’t want to unknowingly draft someone who blew out their knee two days ago.
5. Aim for the middle (21 minutes) – A fantasy baseball season isn’t won due to the performance of your 1-2 studs (although a lackluster season from them could tank yours). You win based on how well you draft the supporting cast. After the 10th round in a 10-team league, the no-brainers like Howard, Santana, A-Rod and Peavy have homes. Now you have to buckle down and find the best of the rest. You’re getting into deciding between Rickie Weeks and Ryan Zimmerman to fill out the roster.
a. Spend a few minutes ranking players by position. You’ll need a catcher, and while none are likely to go in the first few rounds, you’ll want to be prepared to pick one up at a moment’s notice. You don’t want to be stuck with Rod Barajas as your top backstop.
b. Draft to your needs. If you have Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford and Alex Rios already, you probably don’t need a one-dimensional speedster like Juan Pierre. Use that OF spot for someone like Raul Ibanez or Vernon Wells, who provide more depth.
c. Seek out the pitchers who will post double-digit wins. Last year, there were 25 pitchers who had at least 15 wins, but there were 53 who logged 10-14 victories. While you obviously want those guys at the top of the rotation, you probably won’t get more than three of them, so keep your eyes open for Adam Wainright, Jamie Shields or the Old Faithfuls like Derek Lowe.
6. Catch some Zzzzz’s (10 minutes) – Sleeper picks can make your season. Two years ago, I selected Eric Byrnes in the 18th round of an NL-only draft (176th overall) and all he did between 2006 and 2007 was average 24 HRs, 81 RBIs and 38 stolen bases. A quick check of a couple Websites will identify out a handful of sleepers, but also look for telltale signs of someone whose star is rising. For example, Matt Kemp posted a .342 average with 10 HRs, 42 RBIs in only 292 Abs in 2007. Thus, it wasn’t a surprise when he broke out in 2008 with .290-18-76-35-93. Similarly, Ryan Ludwick slugged 14 homers in 303 at-bats in ‘07 , but hit for 37 homers in a full-time role in 2008. Once you’ve dentified a few, figure on drafting one during a lull in the middle rounds. You don’t want to pounce too early, while there are still proven commodities out there, but you also don’t want to wait too long. However, be warned: sleepers are crapshoots at best. For every Shane Victorino, there’s a Ryan Langerhans.
7. Breathe, stretch, shake (3 minutes) – You probably don’t have the mountain of paperwork that some of your opposing managers have on hand, but you aren’t flying blind either. You know who your first couple picks probably will be, you’ve got a handle on who the meat-and-potatoes players are, and you’ve even got a couple sleepers up your sleeve. Hit the bathroom, crank “Eye of the Tiger” and settle in for the long haul. It’s time to make the guy with a white board in his bedroom regret hibernating in his room with spreadsheets for the last month.
Keep, Trade, or Drop?
March 7, 2009
Time for the latest edition of the game show that is sweeping America like Who Wants to be a Millionaire did back in 1999, the year of Ivan Rodriguez, the New York Yankees and Livin’ La Vida Loca. You guessed it, Keep Trade or Drop.
Jay Bruce, Andre Ethier or Hunter Pence?
Me:
I ranked Hunter Pence as the 58th best hitter, Andre Ethier as the 59th best hitter and Jay Bruce as the 155th ranked hitter. Much like Chris Davis, the hype machine has taken over for Jay Bruce. I’ll trade Bruce without thinking about it – he’ll mistakenly bring more than either of the others. He could outperform them, but most players experience growing pains (you know the whole genesis behind sophomore slump), just look at Pence’s 2008. This means that, while I think he’ll outperform Bruce, I have to drop Ethier. So I’m going to roll with Hunter Pence. He will hit in the .270 – .285 range with upside, score 75+ runs, hit at least 25 home runs and knock in near 100. Pence could be a 20-20 player, if not a 30-15 player. That’s not bad value in the 7th round or so.
Harrow:
Assuming that, in all these scenarios, the leagues are keeper leagues, I would say Keep Bruce, drop Pence, Trade Ethier. As usual, this isn’t an easy call. Pence was highly rated going into last year and so likely must be kept at a round where he’s not guaranteed to be a great value. Because Bruce didn’t get called up until later, his value should be very high relative to the round he will be kept at, as he is extremely talented. I like Andre Ethier, but I think what you see right now is the best you will get and you can probably find some other owner out there who believes he’s going to improve into a true all-star, thus his trade value is very high. Then again, if you can find the same with Pence, trade him. Either way, I’m keeping Bruce.
Bloom:
Keep Bruce: there is potential for increased power output and possible adjustments in second season.
Trade Pence: people expect 20/20 but may not be that type of player, at least not yet, but still valued like he is.
Drop Ethier: Talented, but a few years away.
Dan Kane:
This is tough. All of these guys are young enough that they could still do great things. Or they could flop tremendously. I would keep Ethier, drop pence and trade Bruce. I’m keeping Ethier because I like his bat, and I like him playing out in Los Angeles. I think they’re going to sign Manny soon (seriously Manny, are you squabbling over $3M? No one else wants/can afford you), and you put Manny in that lineup, its tremendous support. Manny sees a ton of pitches, and pitchers worry about him, which might make life a bit easier for Ethier. Even without Manny, Ethier really took a step last year in terms of power and average. The fact that both of those went up makes me think he’s moving in the right direction. Hunter Pence, I dunno, he’s good, but I just don’t have him in the same category as the other two. I think we know what he is (they are what we thought they were!). And its good, but it’s not Ethier, which gets us to Jay Bruce (the mystery man). Bruce has tremendous upside and playing in Cincy, I mean, think of the things that he could do. He could also flop like hell (remember how good Jack Cust was supposed to be). Anyway, I think that Bruce has the best trade value of the three, and given that he’s the least known quantity of the three, I’d send him off for the right package.
Jonathan Paplebon, Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera
Me:
In my not off-the-presses pitcher rankings, I rank Paplebon as the 30th best pitcher (and I hate closers). I have Rivera at 46 and K-Rod at 54. I don’t think this decision, though, is cut and dry. I’m actually going to keep Mariano Rivera, and believe me it hurts to say this because of a certain 12-year old boy. Mariano will give you at least 35 saves, a 2.00 ERA and a WHIP in the low 1.0. While I hate to say this, he is somewhat underrated. In addition to my Yankee disdain, I also kind of hate Boston because of this game. Still, Jonathan Paplebon will fetch the most in a trade, so I’m dealing him for a good hitter. Saves are saves, they come from everywhere, so I’ll trade the closer that will get me the most. K-Rod is neither as good nor as dependable as Rivera, so I’m tossing him back to the pool.
Harrow:
K-Rod is the easy drop call here. Though he’s still good, his peripheral numbers have been in a steady decline for a while, and the way the Angels limited their use of him last year hints that they felt he was an injury waiting to happen. As for Paplebon and Rivera, it really depends on where you drafted them. As much as I hate to admit it (being a Yankees fan), Paplebon is extremely talented and may be worth keeping over Rivera, if only because of some questions about Rivera’s off-season (minor) shoulder surgery and his age. However, it’s worth nothing that Rivera is coming off of one of his best seasons and has been nothing short of the best reliever ever. Also, I’ve had some issues with the fact that Paplebon seems reluctant to throw his nasty splitter, which could be indicative of arm trouble (or just that Varitek isn’t quite the game calling genius everyone thinks he is). I’m gonna say Keep Rivera and trade Paplebon, if only because Papelbon’s trade value is higher as a result of his youth and Rivera’s recent surgery.
Bloom:
Keep Paplebon: Lock for 40+ saves and least chance of injury
Trade K-Rod: He is bound to regress from career year last year. He is in a new league, and there might be some adjustment. Still, probably considered “the best” right now so should pull significant trade value.
Drop Rivera: as a Yankees fan, this is difficult, but gotta drop Mo of these three. He is coming off surgery. If he ever had questions, this is the year.
Dan Kane:
Boston v. two NY guys. is there any question who I’m keeping? I love Paps not only for his skill, but b/c you know he wants to be at the end shutting games down. The Sox are going to be good, so you know he’s going to get his chances, and, for the most part, he’ll convert. Out of the three, I think he has the most trade value, but I think he also has the most value on a team – plus, you can’t discount that clubhouse factor (you want to keep your fantasy team loose). In terms of dropping, this is a bit nuts I know, but I’m dropping K-Rod. The single season save champ is good, though I wonder how he’ll do in New York. They’ve got Putz to work the 8th for him, so he should be able to get the Scioscia treatment where he doesn’t have to work more than an inning at a time. That said, something about him, I just don’t trust. And there’s Rivera. God I hate him. He’s been so consistently good, and he should be good again this season. The consistency, and the Yankee homerism (plus the fact that he’s going to get his chances) should make him a good trade target. I don’t think he gets as much back as you’d get for Paps, but I think you get enough.
Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Lance Berkman?
Me:
I’m trading Mark Teixeira, my 13th ranked hitter. He will by far bring back the most value. However, did you know he hasn’t hit 35 home runs in a season since 2005? The RBIs will be there, but his power upside isn’t that of Ryan Howard. My h2h philosophy is to worry about the counting stats and somewhat ignore the ratios (i.e. batting average). That means I’m keeping Ryan Howard, my 10th ranked hitter. In three full season, his lowest home run total was 47. Teixeira has never hit that many, and topped out at 43 in 2005. Howard will likely hit 10-15 more home runs and can out produce Tex in RBIs. I’d rather win HRs, Runs and RBIs then worry about batting average (which can vary dramatically week-to-week). This means I’m throwing the big fish Lance Berkman back into the sea, even though he had a phenomenal year. I’ll take what I can get for Tex and ride Ryan Howard to three category dominance.
Harrow:
I’m trading Ryan Howard, keeping Mark Teixeira, and dropping Lance Berkman. I think Ryan Howard is extremely overrated. He has prodigious power, that’s for sure, but too many people point to his RBI totals without understanding that it’s a stat that heavily relies on his teammates. He’s poor at making contact, he has regressed in the past few years, he has a terrible body which will likely mean an early decline age wise compared to Teixeira, and he doesn’t hit lefties well, especially if they throw a slider. The Phillies are definitely a great team for run producers, but I think that Mark Teixeira’s move from the Angels (a poor OBP team) to the Yankees (an excellent OBP team) should narrow, if not eliminate the gap in their RBI production. Because of this misunderstanding by many managers, Howard’s value is extremely high still and thus can bring back a lot in a trade. I still like Lance Berkman, but over his career he has been injury prone, and his late season collapse doesn’t help his trade value. Teixeira is an excellent hitter in a great lineup and in his prime. He’s definitely the keeper.
Bloom:
Probably depends on your league settings for this one (i.e. do k’s count?), but if not:
Keep Howard: still pre-eminent power hitter in the game.
Trade Tex: name recognition from signing the big contract. He could have a huge year in NY lineup. Still, you can’t really go wrong with either of them. If k’s count, it is Tex over Howard.
Drop Berkman- slightly older than the others, but really no downside here either. Numbers, and steals, will probably regress slightly after a career year.
Dan Kane:
I think this is a decision that you make looking at your roster as a total. If you need a big homerun guy, you go Howard. If you need general consistency, you go Teixeira or Berkman. I tend to think that big homerun guys are a bit harder to find. For that reason I’m taking Howard. Will the new extension make him lazy? I don’t think so. I think he continues to mash and should hit 50+ again. I don’t really like his average much, but that’s why you pick up other guys to fix that up. Solid homerun guys are not as easy to find, so you shouldn’t give up on those that are there. Out of Teixeira and Berkman, I think Tex has greater trade value. He’s younger, he appears to be getting better (or at least staying consistent), and he just signed a mammoth new contract for a team that should score tons of runs. There should be no trouble finding a taker for him. I like Berkman, but every year I worry that he’s going to fall off the map. Is this the year? I don’t know. But out of these three, I’m dropping him.
Chris Davis Hype Machine
March 7, 2009
The Hype Machine…
I touted Chris Davis as a sleeper way back on January 23. Apparently some of the (paid) fantasy prognosticators read my article. Since then, the young corner infielder’s recognition has taken off in fantasy discussions throughout the Interweb. While Davis remains a legitimate 80 run, 30 HR, 100 RBI threat, his hype recently surpassed his projections.
Davis should not be grouped with hype darlings like Dallas McPherson and J.R. Towles because Davis does have some big league experience. There is major league success underlying the accolades. Still, Chris Davis has yet to play a full major league season (only 80 games), and there are some disturbing numbers to watch out for in the future (88 strikeouts in 295 at bats and only 20 walks).
Despite these concerns, I still think Davis could have a tremendous fantasy year. He has an outside shot at 40 home runs – there is no debating the potential, especially given his home ballpark. That said, the projected statistics warrant sleeper consideration in the 10th round or so (depending on the depth of your league). Recent mock drafts, however, project him in the fifth/sixth round, ahead of steady-as-you-go Garrett Atkins.
While there is a legitimate chance Davis could finish with better stats than Atkins, I can’t justify selecting him before the Colorado third basemen. With Atkins, you know what you are getting: a .298 average, 22-25 home runs, 87 runs scored and 104 RBIs. That is a solid fantasy contributor and a surefire everyday starter. At this point in the draft, you simply do not want to fool around with upside and projection guys who only have 295 big league at bats. Don’t believe me? Look at Hunter Pence two years ago. He performed well, but not fifth round well. Taking him too early hamstrung all the teams that selected based on potential and passed up sturdy outfielders in the process.
I’m here to say: stop the Hype Machine. I’ll take my “chances” with Atkins in the seventh – tenth round and grab a solid producing outfielder in the sixth round, like Corey Hart, Shane Victorino or Adam Dunn.
As E.M. Forster notes in The Machine Stops, (part of his amazing group of short stories The Eternal Moment), eventually the Machine stops. You best not think it is simply a whim of the Machine that hype stops when production doesn’t follow…don’t treat the Hype Machine as a mystical entity whose needs supersede your own (i.e. a solid draft strategy).
Keep, Trade or Drop
I’d like to take this time to introduce a new game. Keep, Trade or Drop…if anyone has taken a boring political science class in a really expensive liberal arts school, you might know a different version of this game that isn’t exactly work/children friendly.
The rules of the game are simple. I’m going to give some friends and fantasy baseball aficionados three players and they have to decide who they want to keep, trade or drop. That’s it. I told you, it’s simple.
The first group: Chris Davis, Garrett Atkins, Chipper Jones:
Dan Kane (he might be an attorney some day):
“That’s a tough one. I’m thinking you trade Davis (his value is skyrocketing and its going to be nearly impossible for him to live up to it). Keep Garrett Atkins and drop Chipper only because his health still scares the crap out of me”
Daniel Harrow (he also might be an attorney some day):
Keep: Chris Davis: you probably got him as a free agent, and he will be at least worth whatever spot you keep him at. Trade: Garret Atkins: few players are overvalued more than this guy. Maybe not by everyone, but you’re almost guaranteed to find an owner that doesn’t notice how terrible he is unless he’s facing a lefty at Coors. Drop: Chipper Jones. Ideally you don’t want to have to drop him, and if you can keep him at the same spot as Chris Davis then your thinking might have to change (in that case, maybe keep Chipper, trade Davis, and drop Atkins). I really don’t want to have to drop any of these guys as I think they are all very tradable. But Atkins will probably get you a better return relative to his value and you just know Chipper will be injured at some point this season, and maybe even for most of it. He is, however, easily the most talented of the bunch. Not an easy call at all.
Andrew Bloom:
Keep- Chris Davis– too young, too much upside. I don’t even know what his ceiling is yet but it could be very high. Trade– Chipper, still name recognition but probably overrated by most people…solid production when he is healthy, but that never lasts. Probably best to trade at the break. Drop- Atkins– what you see is what you get…solid production but better players at his positions.
Personally, I (who will not be a lawyer some day) would keep Chipper, trade Atkins and drop Chris Davis. I think you can still get more for Atkins than Chris Davis. Meanwhile, it is important to realize that while Chipper gets injured a lot that also means he accumulates statistics in 120 games. As long as you have a good backup plan, you are combining 75 percent of a season of Chipper and 25 percent of your backup’s season. This helps you create a superhero third baseman who could rival Aramis Ramirez’s statistics.
Adam Dunn Joins Nationals
March 7, 2009
It seems fate has brought me Adam Dunn. He has always been one of my favorite players, even though I’m more of a Ricky Henderson type in build (feel free to laugh). Now, as I sit in Washington D.C. and typically turn down tickets to watch the Nationals, I have a reason to go. More important to me and you than my ballpark habits though is the effect this will have on Adam Dunn, fantasy player.
I think we have to knock his run potential down to the 80 range immediately. He is likely to hit in the 3-5 range behind Milledge, Dukes, and Zimmerman. There are just not that many hitters on the Nats that will have a high batting average. The only hitter to bat over .300 in a reasonable number of at bats was Christian Guzman, while Ryan Zimmerman hit .283 and Milledge hit .268. Those likely to hit behind Dunn (Jesus Flores, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena?) didn’t hit higher than .256. Still, the Nationals are a somewhat exciting team at the top of their lineup. Milledge had a .330 OBP and Dukes had a .386, so there will be runners on base for Dunn. I don’t think he loses much in the RBI projection – 100 seems wholly reasonable. I still think he hits around 40 home runs, but he isn’t as much of a lock as he was before. I do say he is a lock for 35.
So you have to downgrade Dunn in your OF and first base ranks somewhat. I think a line of 80-35-100-.250 is reasonable, with some upside on the HRs and RBIs. Still he will bring some good consistent power value in the 5-8 round range.
H2H Shortstop Rankings
March 7, 2009
h2h Corner
Shortstop Rankings
I love Cal Ripken (platonically, of course, unless he said something…). He was a steady, predictable, trusted shortstop (and later third baseman). Though his numbers might never have been completely dominating (with the exception of his MVP year of 1991), his fantasy owners were always happy to have him.
The evolution from Cal to Hanley Ramirez/Jose Reyes/Jimmy Rollins began in the mid-to-late 1990s with players like Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada, and (to an overrated degree) Derek Jeter. As scoring exploded in this era, teams with offensive-minded shortstops setting the table and driving in runs appeared to be more successful.
Over were the days of great defense being king – or even valued (witness how difficult it is to ascertain Adam Everett’s true value). This new age has ushered in a new bread of fantasy superstars: the well-diversified offensive shortstop (be it via the stolen base, high batting average, runs scores, or, yes, homes runs/RBIs). Having this type of SS on your squad has become essential to the success of a fantasy squad.
The top three fantasy shortstops are pretty easy to predict (barring significant injury): Hanley Ramirez (#3 overall), Jose Reyes (4) and Jimmy Rollins (16). Given their numbers, you can make a case for taking either Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes with the top pick overall. Personally, I like Hanley Ramirez a bit more (and this really is splitting hairs) because his HR production has steadily improved from 17 to 29 to 33, while his batting average has stayed consistently around .300. My only concern is if his stolen base production continues to decline. In his first two full seasons, Ramirez swiped 51 bags, while last year he stole only 35. So long as he maintains that production, he will be the best fantasy shortstop for a long time (provided the Marlins hold off moving him to CF).
Jose Reyes doesn’t provide the pop that Hanley does, but he more than makes up for it with his legs and knowing how to use them. He has averaged 113 runs in each full season with at least 56 stolen bases each year. His batting average is a bit more suspect than Hanley’s, though it has hovered between .280 – .300 for the last three seasons. I don’t really like the Mets, but I love Jose Reyes. If they have any interest in Cesar Izturis, I’m sure the Orioles would be happy to make a deal (provided Izturis isn’t an Angelos favorite yet).
Outside the big 3, if you’re looking for a dependable player with decent upside, might I suggest Jhonny Peralta (66)? For someone I thought would have a comparable 2008 season to Khalil Greene, he put up very un-Greene-like numbers. Aside from 2006 (.257 and 13 HRs), Peralta hasn’t hit lower than .270 or less than 21 HRs in a full season. He should also get you 70+ RBIs (potentially more depending on where he hits in what could be a productive lineup) and 85+ runs (his career low is 82). Over the last four years, Peralta has quietly become a fairly consistent SS (and he could add 3b eligibility and flexibility to your line-up this year). While he might not possess the upside of a Rafael Furcal (75), he is nonetheless a good – and likely under the radar – option.
Speaking of upside, if you’re looking for a later-round shortstop with the potential for solid returns, think long and hard about Rafael Furcal (75) and Stephen Drew (93), particularly if they fall where they should (the seventh and ninth rounds, respectively). Both could experience better seasons this year than last. Furcal has the well-earned health specter hanging over his head: he has failed to play 140 games in four of his nine complete seasons. However, when he plays, he puts up delicious numbers. A healthy Furcal is good for 100-130 runs, 10-15 HRs, and 25+ SBs. He hasn’t posted an average worse than .275 and should be right around.280.
As for Stephen Drew, he posted a remarkable sophomore campaign. His batting average jumped from .238 to .291 (his 2008 numbers were actually more in line with his 209 at bats in 2006). He also scored 91 runs and hit 21 HRs. If he continues improving his batting average and adds a little pop – he might hit 27-30 HRs and be a good source of RBIs – he would be an excellent mid-round selection.
I wonder if I am a little low on Troy Tulowitzki (108). Because of the upside he presents, he could be a lot like Stephen Drew. I am ultimately dissuaded, however, because I like the consistency (and stolen bases) from Orlando Cabrera (102) (ya know, if someone wants to give up the picks and sign him already) and J.J. Hardy (96) a bit more. It wouldn’t be a reach, though, to consider Tulo over the three players ranked in front of him.
Last year’s top 13:
1. Jose Reyes (last year’s overall ranking: 2) Finished: 2nd among shortstops
2. Hanley Ramirez (3) Finished: 1st among shortstops
3. Jimmy Rollins (4) Finished: 4th among shortstops
4. Orlando Cabrera (42) Finished: 9th among shortstops
5. Carlos Guillen (44) Finished: 15th among shortstops
6. Troy Tulowitzki (58) Finished: 33rd among shortstops
7. Derek Jeter (65) Finished 7th among shortstops
8. J.J. Hardy (73) Finished: 8th among shortstops
9. Edgar Renteria (79) Finished: 18th among shortstops
10. Khalil Greene (82) Finished: 56th among shortstops
11. Jhonny Peralta (85) Finished: 3rd among shortstops
12. Michael Young (88) Finished: 5th among shortstops
13. Miguel Tejada (91) Finished: 11th among shortstops
In retrospect, I was way too low on Michael Young and way too high on Orlando Cabrera and Carlos Guillen. Looks like I pegged Derek Jeter and J.J. Hardy right on though. Tulowitzki, I’m taking a mulligan (on account of his injury). Still, I never advocated taking him in the fourth round, which is where a lot of people drafted him.
If Jhonny Peralta continues his upward trajectory, failing to land one of the big three would necessitate getting Jhonny in the 6th/7th round. This could be a draft-changing/saving move. He could be undervalued in drafts and might provide a good SS at the right price if you are frozen out of the alpha dogs.
If you have a top pick, you could do worse than taking Pujols or Grady Sizemore. When the draft comes back around, however, make sure you can get Jimmy Rollins. It is hard to nitpick Jimmy’s value next year – he had injury problems and still made it back to a top 5 year. He is easily a second rounder in my book, but hopefully, you can get him toward the end of the round. This, surprisingly, makes Jimmy Rollins (with a tip of the hat to Jhonny Peralta) perhaps the best SS bargain.
Complete Shortstop Ranks (* denotes projected starter):
1. Hanley Ramirez*
2. Jose Reyes*
3. Jimmy Rollins*
4. Jhonny Peralta*
5. Michael Young*
6. Rafael Furcal* (health is a question here)
7. Derek Jeter*
8. Stephen Drew* (Could improve in the desert)
9. J.J. Hardy*
10. Orlando Cabrera (where will he end up?)
11. Troy Tulowitzki* (Wasn’t a big fan last year, but I didn’t predict injury-plagued campaign)
12. Miguel Tejada*
13. Christian Guzman
14. Ryan Theriot
15. Mike Aviles
16. Marco Scutaro
17. Carlos Guillen*
18. Yunel Escobar* (lots of swirling trade rumors)
19. Edgar Renteria* (yuck…AT&T Park…not cool)
20. Jed Lowrie
21. Bobby Crosby
22. Yuniesky Betancourt*
23. Clint Barmes
24. Jose Bautista
25. Jason Bartlett (Tampa Bay MVP? Seriously?)*
26. Brendan Harris
27. Cesar Izturis* (Way to go Orioles)
28. Jamey Carroll
29. Erick Aybar
30. Rich Aurilla
31. Macier Izturis
32. Nick Punto (Metrodomers love him)
33. Aaron Miles
34. Ramon Vazquez
35. Jeff Keppinger
36. Omar Infante
H2H Second Base Rankings
March 7, 2009
Ladies and Gentleman, your 2008 AL MVP is a second baseman. He also, probably, went late in every 10 team draft. In retrospect, the 2008 spring training suggested second base was a position on the rise, particularly when players like Dustin Pedroia were more of an afterthought in drafts.
Going into 2009, however, it appears there are only two healthy lockdown reliable second basemen (and the reigning MVP isn’t one of them). After this dynamic duo, things go from good (with upside) to dicey to scary. Ultimately, you’re reading this article because you’re looking for a second basemen you can trust (or because I’m spamming you). With some of the options so devoid of consistency (Rickie Weeks, Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla please stand up), you’ll want to draft well, or else consign your fate to whoever has the hot hand in the free agent carousel (Jose Lopez, Alexei Ramirez, Kelly Johnson, Casey Blake…you get the picture).
The cream of the crop was supposed to be Chase Utley (I had finished a version of this article the day the news came out). Utley is a fantastic player, someone anyone would be happy to choose as their only second baseman—except for this calamity. Last year, he did an overwhelming amount of damage in April through the end of May (19 HRs, 49 RBIs and .310 average). In my opinion, the loss of time and 200+ at bats moves Utley into the 10th round range. He should be the 13th second basement off the board.
Still, many of you, I know, would like to make the upside play. You think you can make due with a below-average second baseman for half the season then kick into overdrive with Utley in the line-up (especially if you can grab him in the 6th round or so). I’ve been there. I’ve thought those thoughts. When it comes down to it, there are just too many risks associated with this play. When he does come back, will the injury still hamper him? Since he misses all of spring training, how long will it take him to get back into Utley shape?
This injury immediately bumps Ian Kinsler to the top of the board for second base. While he is not as durable as one might hope, Kinsler has excellent tools. If he can play 160 games, he could be the real 2009 Chase Utley. His numbers have been staggering (see my argument here). Still, the injury bug has to be a slight concern.
For some reason, people don’t seem to love Brian Roberts as much as I do. In interest of full disclosure, I’m a Baltimore Orioles fan. There is no bias, however, in B-Rob’s numbers. Last year, I drafted him early and was handsomely rewarded with a .296 average, 107 runs and 40 SBs – he even threw in 57 RBIs. Those numbers mirror his 2007 and are in line with 2006, (when he missed 20 games or so due to injury). Quite simply, he has proven that he scores runs, hits for a decent average and steals many bases. If Roberts is available anywhere in the third round of your draft, grab him. Think about it this way: if you can get Brian Roberts in the 3rd or Utley in the 6/7, you’re going to be much much happier w/ B-Rob a couple of rounds earlier.
Chone Figgins could be a B-Rob light (minus the consistency). He is not a bad choice if he goes where he should, about the 8th/9th rounds. Figgins could offer a .280 average, 80+ runs, and 35+ SBs. Not horrible for that spot in the draft (and probably better numbers than what you can now expect from Utley).
2009 will test your faith in Brandon Phillips: which half year will show up? I loved him going into last year. He rewarded that love with a phenomenal first half, in which he hit .280 with 15 HRs, 58 RBIs and 19 SBs. His second half, however, was disastrous (.225/6/20/4). I’m willing to roll the dice with him as the 4th second basemen off the board, especially if he is available in the 4th/5th rounds. That could be a sneaky play if you get frozen out of the top steady second basemen. Phillips could solidify a weak position without being too costly and could very well end up being the top second basemen at the end of the year.
A potential sleeper for you: Mark Ellis – I could see taking a chance on him. There are some ifs surrounding him (will he stay healthy, will he get to bat in front of Matt Holliday (does this even matter), etc.), but his price will not be nearly as high as someone like Howie Kendrick. If those ifs work out, you could be looking at 20+ home runs – in his last full season (2007), he hit .276 with 19 HRs and 76 RBIs. In 140 fewer at bats last year, he hit 12 HRs and managed to steal 14 bases. A 15 HR/15 SB season is not out of his reach.
The opposite side to the California coin is Howie Kendrick. He falls into the same level of dislike that I have for Robinson Cano (detailed here). Both of them are, for reasons beyond me, tremendously overvalued. The tools are supposedly there, but the production definitely is not. Kendrick has played 72, 88 and 92 games in three “full” seasons. His high watermarks include a tidy .322 average, five HRs, 39 RBIs, 55 runs and 11 SBs. Combining his best seasons doesn’t even make a top 10 second basemen for me. If you’re in a shallow league and want to take a chance on upside knowing the free agent pool will be stocked with the reliable carousel mentioned above, go for it. But in deeper leagues, or more competitive leagues, I’d prefer to secure the services of a second bagger I know I can trust – kind of like going to a bookstore and buying almost any Graham Greene novel (with the possible exception of the Power and the Glory – wasn’t really a fan).
Last year’s top 13:
1. Chase Utley (last year’s overall ranking: 9) Finished: 2nd among second basemen
2. Brandon Phillips (10) Finished: 9th among second basemen
3. Brian Roberts (18) Finished: 4th among second basemen
4. Dan Uggla (38) Finished: 6th among second basemen
5. BJ Upton (40) Finished: 7th among second basemen
6. Chone Figgins (52) Finished: 20th among second basemen
7. Ian Kinsler (61) Finished 3rd among second basemen
8. Kelly Johnson (68) Finished: 10th among second basemen
9. Robinson Cano (72) Finished: 16th among second basemen
10. Placido Polanco (78) Finished: 11th among second basemen
11. Jeff Kent (81) Finished: 32nd among second basemen
12. Freddy Sanchez (95) Finished: 27th among second basemen
13. Orlando Hudson (96) Finished: 28th among second basemen
Outside of the Dustin Pedroia oversight (he finished 1st), these rankings are pretty spot on. The high level of trust in Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla sure looked good in the first half of the season, but, alas, slumps and injuries (or reversions to form?) derailed both their seasons, as well as my keeper team which started Phillips at second and Uggla at IF.
I liked Ian Kinsler, but not enough. I love Kinsler for next year. My dislike and low ranking of Robinson Cano was accurate. I’m still dubious on whether he can hit for a high average. Meanwhile Jeff Kent gets the Todd Helton first basemen ranking treatment.
Below, I love the top two. After that, I feel like there is a gulf of consistency between them and 3-5. With a repeat year, or something close to it, Dustin Pedroia would vault into the top tier (along with a healthy Utley) for 2010. For now though, if you want to guarantee yourself an elite second basemen, I’d stick to Ian Kinsler and Brian Roberts.
Complete Second Baseman Ranks (* denotes projected starter):
1. Ian Kinsler*
2. Brian Roberts*
3. Dan Uggla*
4. Brandon Phillips*
5. Dustin Pedroia*
6. Mark Derosa*
7. Chone Figgins (if he retains eligibility)*
8. Jose Lopez*
9. Alexei Ramirez (sophomore slump?)*
10. Kelly Johnson*
11. Robinson Cano (eh – as discussed here)*
12. Casey Blake (depending on where he ends up)*
13. Chase Utley (when does he really return from injury?)*
14. Rickie Weeks (Will he be traded? Will he get playing time? Will his body work?)
15. Placido Polanco*
16. Ryan Theriot*
17. Akinori Iwamura*
18. Ty Wiggington
19. Marco Scutaro
20. Freddy Sanchez (a healthier version of Howie Kendrick)*
21. Kazuo Matsui*
22. Clint Barmes
23. Ray Durham
24. Felipe Lopez
25. Mark Ellis (Sneaky play here with upside of 20+ HRs)
26. Alexi Cassila
27. Jeff Kent (Yeah…he got old)
28. Orlando Hudson (He could move up depending on what line-up he slots into)*
29. Jose Bautista
30. Blake DeWitt
31. Ronnie Belliard
32. Howie Kendrick (I don’t like Howie Kendrick…guys who derive most of their value from BA are not my favorite)*
33. Asdrubal Cabrera
34. Ian Stewart (3b of the future? At bats could free up if the Rocks move Atkins)
35. Ramon Vazquez (could put up interesting numbers with full time at bats)
H2H First Base Rankings
March 7, 2009
I recently took a business trip to the west coast – I learned that it is far. Thankfully my roommate (he is a DJ and also really good at Survivor Fantasy) leant me his iPod. Since he is a DJ, he has loads of pop music. While I still love listening to the whimsical Don’t Think Twice It’s Alright, I cant deny the joy I get from Burnin’ Up or Hot N Cold (man Katy Perry’s songwriter = the amazing). I can’t remember a time when pop music was so consistent and fraught with as many heavy hitters, which, now makes the rambling preamble pertinent.
The not-so-hot corner (unless Ryan Howard [lefty] is up) represents a deep pool of home run hitters and RBI collectors. This is, perhaps, the steadiest position, year in year out. Outfield is deep, and you start three (sometimes more) for a reason. But outfielders possess the full gamut of fantasy statistics, while, with first basemen, you really only need think about HR/RBI production.
There isn’t anything shocking in these rankings – I’ve long been a fan of Lance Berkman, although I never seem to get him. His stolen base output (18) was great, but don’t expect that when figuring out your plans on draft day.
In my opinion, there is a core of nine reliable first basemen. This means you can wait on the position in drafts and try to acquire elite players at more elusive positions and stat categories early. There is no shame, however, in securing HR/RBI production – week in, week out – by grabbing an Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard in the first round.
That said, I am not sold on Carlos Delgado, Derrek Lee (mostly because of how he spells his first name), David Ortiz and Carlos Pena. Quite simply, where did Delgado’s first half self go? In April, May and June, Delgado hit .198, .258 and .229 with 3, 5 and 6 home runs respectively. Regardless, that horrendous start is in there somewhere, and it could come back like that sketchy rash you got vacationing in Tijuana.
Lee doesn’t provide the power or RBIs slotting into the middle of a potent line-up that an owner would like to see. He seems far removed from his MVP-esque numbers in 2005, when he hit .335 with 46 HRs, 107 RBIs and 15 SBs. Last year (a comeback year of sorts), he hit .291 with 20 HRs, 119 RBIs and 8 SBs. In his last three seasons he has hit a combined 50 HRs; reaching his 2005 levels now seems unattainable.
Meanwhile there are a lot of question marks around Big Papi. What does the loss of Manny, if anything, mean? Will Jason Bay provide the necessary protection? Will his wrist heal fully? He appeared to be cheating on fast balls down the stretch. With first base, I’d rather not take a chance and draft him early expecting Morneau-, Fielder- or Youkilis-level production. Given where I rank him, there is a good chance for upside. I see him as a solid UTIL on someone’s squad.
I bought heavily into Carlos Pena last year. It didn’t pay the dividends I would have liked, especially when Adrian Gonzalez was still on the board 2-3 rounds later. That said, Pena provides a good chance at 35+ HRs and 100+ RBIs. I guess what I’m saying is, if he is the 13th first basemen off the board, you have a good upside play on your hands.
I also really like Joey Votto – he could provide some great stats in that ballpark. In what was essentially a full season, he hit .297 with 24 HRs, 84 RBIs and 7 SBs. Lots of upside there.
Last year’s top 15*:
1. Prince Fielder (last year’s overall ranking: 14) Finished: 11th among first basemen
2. David Ortiz (19) Finished: 22nd among First Baseman
3. Ryan Howard (23) Finished: 4th among First Baseman
4. Carlos Pena (25) Finished: 20th among First Baseman
5. Albert Pujols (27) Finished: 1st among First Baseman
6. Lance Berkman (28) Finished 2nd among First Baseman
7. Justin Morneau (41) Finished: 9th among First Baseman
8. Adrian Gonzalez (50) Finished: 8th among First Baseman
9. Derrek Lee (66) Finished: 14th among First Baseman
10. Mark Teixeira (69) Finished: 3rd among First Baseman
11. Carlos Delgado (76) Finished: 10th among First Baseman
12. Kevin Youkilis (77) Finished: 6th among First Baseman
13. Paul Konerko (83) Finished: 37th among First Baseman
14. Adam LaRoche (89) Finished: 25th among First Baseman
15. Todd Helton (98) Finished: 52nd among First Baseman
*Miguel Cabrera wasn’t ranked because he didn’t have first basemen eligibility yet.
Man…Todd Helton was the first draft pick in fantasy I ever made – it’s sad to see him fall to these depths. What can you do though? I wasn’t too interested in him last year and want no part of him this year.
I was a little too bullish on Carlos Pena it appears, and the David Ortiz injury really hurt that prediction. I thought Prince Fielder was the second coming of Ryan Howard…I was wrong. I do expect the same kind of season next year, maybe a tick better.
It pays to go with consistency at first base, which is why Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez make up my top five fantasy first baseman next year.
Complete First Baseman Ranks:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Ryan Howard
3. Lance Berkman (probably will not repeat his stolen base performance)
4. Mark Teixeira (regardless of where he lands)
5. Adrian Gonzalez
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. Justin Morneau
8. Prince Fielder
9. Kevin Youkilis
10. Carlos Delgado (kind of scary putting him here, cant argue with 2/3 of his season though)
11. Derrek Lee
12. David Ortiz (no Manny, no problem? Hurt wrist = problem)
13. Carlos Pena (legit 30+ HR possibility)
14. Jason Giambi (where will he end up?)
15. Joey Votto
16. Jorge Cantu (could regress)
17. Mark Reynolds (prefer him as your 3b – one of these years he will put together a good *lucky* batting average campaign)
18. Mark Derosa
19. Aubrey Huff
20. Mike Jacobs
21. Conor Jackson (man, did he fade)
22. Adam LaRoche
23. Chris Davis
24. Nick Swisher
25. James Loney (not so high on him…never was)
26. Ryan Garko (see catcher rankings)
27. Kevin Millar (consistently below average)
28. Alex Gordon (so woefully inconsistent)
29. Lyle Overbay (consistent)
30. Eric Hinske
31. Casey Kotchman
32. Victor Martinez (you want him for his other eligibility)
33. Ty Wiggington
34. Paul Konerko (could he be D.O.N.E.?)
35. Billy Butler (let’s just say, I don’t believe in the Royals)
36. Matt Stairs (platoon in Philly, if Burrell gone?)
37. Daric Barton
38. Rich Aurillia
39. Greg Dobbs (ditto the Stairs talk)
40. Ross Gload
41. Darin Erstad (he wasn’t entirely unusable last year…but yeah, he was close)
42. Martin Prado (interesting numbers down the stretch: .335 BA, 25 runs, 2 HRs, 25 RBIs in the second half, massive positional flexibility, cool name)
Did You Know…?
Rich Harden had the best K/9 rate (10.91) of any starting pitcher? He was followed by Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, Gio Gonzalez, Yovani Gallardo and many others.
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