h2h Corner ~ Brad Ziegler, A’s closer
March 31, 2009
With news that Joey Devine, he of the 0.59 ERA last year, is headed to the DL and Dr. James Andrews, Brad Ziegler appears to be the next closer wire claim of the unborn season. In 59 innings last season, Ziegler struck out 30 batters (not great), but posted a 1.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
With worse ratios than that, he could be a 30 save closer in 2009. He is certainly someone who can step right in for Joey Devine and perform. Don’t forget, last year Ziegler set a major league record for most consecutive scoreless innings to start a career.
There is the chance that major league batters caught up to his funky delivery slightly, as he posted a 3.00 ERA in September/October. Still, as a waiver wire pick-up, you should be jettisoning your Mariner’s closers, Fernando Rodney, Chris Ray, George Sherrill, Chris Perez, and J.J. Putz types. A 3.00 ERA closer is still a rosterable entity.
Pitchability?!?!
March 31, 2009
After seeing Sidney Ponson get rocked in today’s spring training start, Royals manager Trey Hillman said: “I’m not disappointed. I didn’t like the results, but I’m not disappointed in what he brings to table. … We still saw stuff, pitchability.”
Word to the wise – until and unless Pitchability becomes a category in your league, there is absolutely no justification for owning Sidney Ponson. And this is coming from someone who owned him last year for about 5 minutes. No excuses.
And Royals fans wonder why they don’t win…
h2h Corner ~ Impact Prospects I
March 31, 2009
When you are playing against owners who know and follow baseball, drafting based on previous performance, while key, may not be enough to win your league. Fielding a strong team in this environment dictates you manage to pick up major impact prospects in the later rounds of your draft or in the days after they have left Durham.
Two years ago, managing the waiver wire to ensure you grabbed Ryan Braun netted you tasty results. Last year, grabbing players like Edison Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Jacoby Ellsbury, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, and Geovany Soto helped you to fantasy gold.
Of course, there was also Andy LaRoche, Homer Bailey, Cameron Maybin, Clay Buccholz, and Daric Barton. So, you have to be careful about what you use (draft pick or if you drop a player from your team) to grab your blue chipper.
This year, the headliners are David Price and Matt Wieters. You know them; they are on rosters and should be drafted in the first 20 rounds based on upside. However, you are taking a bigger gamble on these guys than those detailed below. Personally, I wouldn’t use a top 15 round draft pick on an inexperienced player likely to spend significant time in the minors. When I analyze prospects, all I care about is maximizing production from the later rounds of my draft and the waiver wire. That said, lets get to part I.
Tommy Hanson – SP – Atlanta Braves – Hanson struck out 114 hitters in 98 AA innings last year – wow. It is not hard to imagine similar strike out potential to Johnny Cueto, but Hanson could easily outshine him in the more pitcher-friendly confines of Turner Field. It is possible that the Braves, in sending him to the minors, are trying to delay his arbitration clock. This means he should get close to four months of MLB time, which should put him on your waiver wire radar by the middle of May at the latest.
Brett Wallace – 3b – St. Louis Cardinals – Wallace only has 54 minor league games (41 in A ball) to his credit. Still, he had a .427 OBP and .530 slugging percentage. In his small sample size of 49 AA at bats, Wallace managed a .367 AVG, .456 OBP, and .653 SLG. Though he bats left-handed, he seems to handle lefties and righties equally well. If Glaus’ injury persists into the summer, the Cardinals could see added pressure to bring Wallace up to the big leagues.
Mat Gamel – 3b – Milwaukee Brewers – Gamel killed the ball in AA last year, posting a 96/19/96/.329 line in 127 games. When promoted to AAA, he seemed to struggle (though he only had 21 ABs). Still, his bat isn’t what is keeping him in the minors. As soon as he gains some consistency with his glove, he should be a contributing Brewer regular. Sounds eerily similar to Ryan Braun’s story, eh? Plus, do you think Bill Hall can keep him down?
Jordan Zimmerman – SP – Washington Nationals – Zimmerman is, perhaps, the prospect most on the rise in fantasy circles. In 106 AA innings, he struck out 103 batters, while posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. It looks like he’ll break camp with the Nationals, meaning he could be a sneaky source of Ks at the outset. However, you can’t expect him to post ratios similar to those of his minor league stats, as the show is a bit different than AA ball.
Dexter Fowler – OF – Colorado Rockies – in 108 games in AA last year, Fowler hit .335 with 92 runs, 9 HRs, 64 RBIs and 20 SBs. That amounts to a .431 OBP, a .515 SLG, and an OPS of .946. If he can crack the starting nine, Fowler could provide a sneaky combination of power and speed – did I mention he plays in Coors?
Neftali Feliz – SP Texas Rangers – In addition to Jared Saltalamacchia, Feliz was a key piece of bounty in the Mark Teixeira deal two summers ago. He has only pitched 45 innings in AA, but boy were those an impressive 45 innings. He struck out 47 batters, while posting a 2.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Still, expectations must be tempered based on his age (21), and home ballpark.
Spring Training Stats Don’t Mean Squat
March 31, 2009
Every March sports journalists and fantasy baseball afficionados gossip about the latest and greatest spring training performances. Have you heard that Mark Teahen has five homers in 42 at-bats? Or that Joel Pineiro has a 1.44 ERA in 25 innings pitched? I’ m here to tell you that these stats don’t mean a blessed thing come April 5.
Spring Training stats are compiled in an abbreviated sample size, with stats often skewed by performances against minor league players, or by players trying out new things (e.g. new pitches, different batting stances, etc.). For veteran players especially, spring stats have little correlation to regular season success. Thus, Joel Pineiro’s spring success will not translate into a stellar 2009 regular season ERA; Zach Greinke will not finish 2009 with a 9.64 ERA; and Eric Bruntlett, who has stolen seven bases thus far this spring, will be lucky to stealthat many for the entire season.
There are endless examples of hitters who perform well in the spring but struggle in the regular season, and vice versa. Robinson Cano had a .447 batting average last spring, but had an atrocious April and finished with the worst stats of his career. Carlos Ruiz was a top sleeper pick at catcher last season after hitting .407 in the spring, but he struggled to a meager .219 average in the regular season. Likewise, Eric Patterson hit .314 in the spring, and .192 in the regular season. Carlos Beltran hit .190 with zero homers in the spring, but put together another all-star year in the regular season. Joey Votto hit .158 in the spring, hardly the stats one would expect to see after witnessing his .297, 24 homer regular season performance. And as a final illustration, J.R. Towles hit .467 in the spring and subsequentally became one of the biggest fantasy baseball flops in history after hitting .137 and losing his job.
Some have argued that a difference in a player’s spring slugging percentage and lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more will foreshadow improvement in the upcoming season. Don’t be snookered by such malarkey! Last year, players falling into that description included Brian Anderson, Carlos Guillen, Billy Butler and Nick Swisher. But they didn’t exactly make the Sports Center highlight reel in 2009.
You should also beware of boasts and unrealistic expectations. Randy Johnson claims he feels like he’s in better shape than anytime over the past four years. Unsigned Pedro Martinez says the same. Then there the infamous story from a few years ago about Bernard Gilkey claiming he was going to steal 30 bases. He might as well have said he bought 100 batting gloves, one for every base he was going to steal. Here’s a tip: if Christian Guzman claims he’s going to hit 30 homers this season, run. Run far far away and don’t draft him.
The title of this article aside, there are certain, specific situations where spring stats do matter. First, spring stats are useful to determine the winner of position battles. For example, Emilio Bonafacio won the starting third base job with the Marlins because he hit the ball well this spring, whereas Dallas McPherson did not. Likewise, Travis Ishikara won the starting first base job with the Giants because of his outstanding spring. For young,players competting for a starting job, spring stats may form the basis for the manager’s decision, and should be viewed accordingly.
Second, spring stats are useful to determine whether a player is healthy. For example, Chris Carpenter has been out the past two years following arm surgery. While he remains a big risk, it is encouraging that he has dominated this spring and shown no signs of arm trouble. Ditto for Mike Hampton. Similarly, Chone Figgins stole less than expected in 2008 as a result of an injured hamstring. Yet, he’s running well this spring and already has seven steals, which is good for third in the majors.
While spring stats are relevant in those few situations, I do not believe they are helpful to project 2009 performances. Instead, I recommend looking at a a myriad of other stats, including, among others, a player’s three year history, with extra emphasis on the most recent year, his age, ballpark, supporting lineup, trends in stats, sabremetric stats, and anticipated playing time.
h2h Corner ~ Brett Gardner, the starter…
March 30, 2009
The Yankees are important. The centerfielder for the Yankees is important. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Opening Day centerfielder is Melky, er, Brett Gardner. Read more
Closer Knowledge – Update!
March 30, 2009
As an update to my recent column, the Cardinals sent reliever Chris Perez to AAA this afternoon, meaning that either Jason Motte or Ryan Franklin will close for the Cards to start the year.
I’d grab Motte right now if he’s available in your league. He was drafted in the 17th round in my mixed league draft the other day, causing half the room to yell and scream. So go get him now.
How To Identify A Sleeper, Part III
March 30, 2009
This series provides a primer on how to identify your own sleepers rather than rely exclusively on the experts’ picks. To recap, the first technique is to find a player who performed well in limited playing time in the past and is now slotted for a full-time role. The second techinque is to identify a player who performed poorly in 2008 because of an injury (the player either missed a lot of time, or played through the pain to the detriment of his stats), but is fully healed and has a starting job in 2009.
The third technique, which I discuss today, is to identify a young player who will have a breakout season in 2009. History provides a glimpse into the benefits of this strategy. Many all-stars struggled in their first couple of seasons in the Bigs. Only after they developed physically and mentally, and adapted to the rigors of the pros, were they able to become stars. Take Greg Maddux as an example. He finished his rookie season, 1986, with a 5.52 ERA and followed that up with a less-than-stellar 5.61 ERA in 1987. But fantasy baseball managers willing to take a chance on him in 1988 were rewarded with 18 wins and a 3.18 ERA.
There are countless players that similarly struggled before attaining success. J.J. Hardy hit .247 with 9 homers in his rookie season, hardly foreshadowing his .283 average and 24 homers of 2008. Likewise, Aramis Ramirez hit .235 in 1998, .179 in 1999, and .256 in 2000. Although he had great promise, few expected him to break through with a .300 batting average and 34 homers in 2001. The same can be said of Jake Peavy, who had a 4.52 ERA and six wins in 2002 and later became one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Your task is to identify those talented players who will have a breakout performance in 2009. There are some general guidelines to assist you in this assignment.
First, take a look at the player’s age. Players who make it to the majors at a very young age (18-23) must be very talented to make it to the majors so quickly. Even if they struggle at first, there is reason to hope they will adapt to the pros and have a banner career once they get more experience. Indeed, many experts hypothesize that 27 is the magic age for developing players. While there may be some merit to that theory, I believe it varies on the player and the age at which they made their major league debut.
Second, look for players who were mediocre in 2008, but not terrible. Players that hit .250 — as opposed to .150 — are clearly able to handle the majors, and with a few adjustments can make it to the next level.
Third, look for trends. Some young players struggle in their first few years, but if their performance consistently improves, there is reason for optimisim.
Fourth, look at minor league numbers. Sure, some players with great minor league numbers never succeed in the majors (e.g. Andy Marte, Luis Medina, Eric Anthony, David West, Ben McDonald, Reggie Jefferson, etc.), but dominance in the minors could indicate upward potential and future success in the Bigs.
Fifth, make the sure the player has a full-time job and will receive plenty of playing time.
Sixth, watch the player on television. Trust your gut. Does the batter have a wild swing? Does he hit the ball hard? If you are watching a pitcher, does he look dominant? Is he wild? Is he a pitcher or a thrower?
This strategy involves a bit more of guesswork than the others. Even if you guess correctly on a future all-star, you still need to predict that it will happen this season. Here are some players that could breakout this season:
1) Adam Jones. Jones is 23 years old and held his own in his rookie season with a .270-9-57-10-61 performance. He hit .314 with 25 homers and 8 steals in Triple A in 2007, and we expect Jones will take another step forward in 2009.
2) Billy Butler. Butler took a step back last season, after a very successful rookie season in 2007. Still, he managed a .275 batting average and 11 homers in 4443 at-bats in 2008. He’s only 22, but seems ready for a .290-20-80 season.
3) Elijah Dukes. Dukes has always been a head case, but anyone that saw him play at the end of 2008 witnessed his prodigious power. His trend is also favorable. A year after hitting .190 with 10 homers and 21 RBI’s, Dukes hit .264 with 13 homers and 44 RBI’s. Dukes enters 2009 as a starter, and could hit 20+ homers with similar stolen base totals.
4) Justin Upton. Scouts have been raving about Upton for several years now, but he hasn’t done too much at the majors yet to justify the hype. His rookie season was awful; he hit .221 with 37 strikeouts in 140 at-bats. But Upton showed marked improvement in 2008, slugging 15 homers with a .250 average. Only 21, Upton should become a star in 2009 or 2010.
5) Zack Greinke. Greinke gets overlooked because he plays on the Royals, but he is a star in the making. Only 25, Greinke has improved in each of his three big league seasons. Last year, he quietly managed 13 wins with a 3.47 ERA 1.28 WHIP, and 183 K’s. His peripherals are also good, with a good hits-to-innings pitched ratio, and low walks. Greinke should continue his development in 2009.
6) Paul Malholm. Many scoff at drafting Pittsburgh Pirates, but Malholm may actually be a worthy choice. In 2007, Malhom had a deceivingly poor 5.01 ERA, but that was partly the result of two atrocious September starts. Last season is more illustrative. He put together a 3.71 ERA, 139 K’s and a 1.28 WHIP. At 26 years of age, Malholm could develop into a mid-tier pitcher with 13 wins, a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP a possibility.
7) Yusmeiro Petit. Petit may never be a star, but he could develop into a reliable #3 starter. He has improved in each of his three seasons in the pros, culminating ina 4.31 ERA, 1.05 WHIP performance in 2008. Petiti has a deceiving delivery, which makes him hard to hit and results in good strikeout numbers. If he retains a rotation spot for a full season, Petit could supply 12 wins with a 4.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Are there any I missed? Feel free to leave them in the comments section. Happy hunting and good luck.
Closer Knowledge
March 29, 2009
Today provided a lot more clarity into who will begin the season as a closer for a couple teams. First, Sweet Lou Piniella finally named his closer, and it will be Kevin Gregg, who served as Florida’s closer the past two years and was acquired in a trade over the winter. Gregg saved 61 games over the past two years and has had an excellent spring so far. Gregg was chosen over Carlos Marmol, who is by far the better pitcher, and one of the few middle relievers worth owning in any league. He led all NL relievers in strikeouts last year, and is generally lights out…BUT in a league that doesn’t count holds, Gregg immediately vaults to near-top closer status. Gregg will be the Cubs’ 3rd closer in the past three years (Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood were the others), and you can count on a few wins, 30 saves, and a decent enough ERA and WHIP that he won’t kill you. Gregg is known to have some pretty big blowups, so if Sweet Lou has a short leash, Marmol is good enough that you should own him too.
The second team that gave us some closer clarity today is the Mariners. Brendan Morrow informed the team that he wants to be the closer (a la Jonathan Papelbon informing the Red Sox of the same thing a few years back), and although the Mariners have not commented, they promptly cut closer candidate Tyler Walker, delayed sending Morrow to AAA to build himself up as a starter, and are very mum all of a sudden on what’s going on.
I’ve had two drafts in the past week and both have seen a bunch of Mariners get picked just-in-case…if I were you, I’d pick Morrow, but not too high, and grab Batista as a handcuff pick; he seems to be the guy who will pitch if Morrow is sidelined, or can’t go. David Aardsma has had an excellent spring to pitch himself into the competition, but they seem higher on Batista than Mr. Aardvark.
Two other teams still haven’t said anything – the Cardinals (who seem to be favoring Jason Motte, but Chris Perez and Ryan Franklin are in the mix there as well) and the Rockies (who are having an open competition between newly acquired Huston Street and last year’s closer-in-waiting, Manuel Corpas. Again, my drafts saw all five of those team’s candidates taken, just in case. Unlike Marmol, however, none are really worth owning if they aren’t the closer. But I’d grab Motte and Perez, and Corpas.
Deep Sleepers For NL-Only Leagues
March 29, 2009
There are sleepers, and then there are guys in hibernation. Some of these more obscure players have hidden value that could help your fantasy baseball team. These players, often called deep sleepers, should be taken only at the end of a draft, or for a few bucks in an auction. It is always good to fill out your roster with players that have some upside potential. Consider the following players deep sleepers for NL-only leagues.
1) Mike Fontenot
Fontenot will start at second base for the Chicago Cubs, taking over for Mark DeRosa. In limited playing time last seasons, Fontenot displayed good pop (9 homers in 243 at-bats) and a solid batting average (.305). He’s a former first round pick with nondescript minor league numbers. In a full season he could hit up to 12-15 homers with a .275 batting average. He will cost $1 or $2 on draft day, which is good value at a weak position.
2) Andy LaRoche
Formerly a top prospect, LaRoche was a trendy sleeper pick in 2008, but has found himself in the proverbial Roto dog house in 2009 after hitting an ugly .166 last year. Yet, LaRoche is still an immense talent. His minor league stats are illustrative. In 2007, he hit 18 homers with a .309 batting average and .399 OBP% in only 265 at-bats. He had similar homer totals, with many more at-bats, in 2006. LaRoche will be the Pirates starting third basemen in 2009 and will have a chance to redeem his abysmal 2008 performance and realize the talent many once projected for him.
3) Emmanuel Burris
Burris has the inside track on the starting second basemen job for the Giants and could provide your team with a bundle of stolen bases. In limited playing time in 2008, Burris held his own, hitting .283 with 13 steals. But his minor league stats provide a glimpse of his real potential. For example, in 2007 Burris hit .278 with 68 steals. If he holds down the job for a full season, Burris could easily steal 30 or more bases in the Bigs.
4) Khalil Greene
Just a year ago Greene was considered a top power option at shortstop, but a disastrous 2008 season has relegated him to the bottom of the player rankings. Yet, Greene remains an intriguing late round option; anyone who can hit 27 homers in Petco Park is capable of doing well at any park in the country. In 2009 Greene will be manning shortstop for the Cardinals, and will be hitting alongside the likes of Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus, and Rick Ankiel. He’s no friend to your batting average, but he may rebound and hit 15-20 homers in 2009.
5) Ryan Spilborghs
Spilborghs is arguably a regular sleeper and not a deep sleeper, but many still consider him only a part-time player, which is lowering his average draft position. But Spilborghs is projected to start in centerfield for the Rockies, and over a full year, could hit .300-15-85-10-80. Sounds crazy, but take a look at both his major and minor league past performance. In 497 major league at-bats over the past two years, Spilborghs hit 17 homers with 87 RBI’s, 11 steals, 78 runs scored and ~ a .306 batting average. He routinely hit north of .300 in the minors (.340 in ‘05, .338 in ‘06, .323 in ‘07), and there’s no reason to expect his performance in Coors to be much different.
6) Nyjer Morgan
Morgan is likely to win the battle he is fighting with Eric Hinske for the starting left field job in Pittsburgh. If Morgan does, in fact, win the job, he could be a speed demon on the base paths. Last season he stole nine bases in 58 games in the majors, and an additional 44 in Triple A. He’s a contact hitter and usually hits for a high batting average. Depending on playing time, his stolen bases could look at lowly as Endy Chavez’s, or as high as Juan Pierre’s.
7) Chris Dickerson
If you’re looking for an unknown power-speed stud, Dickerson could be your guy. He is slated to start in left field for the Reds, but may ride the pine against lefties until he proves he can hit them better. In the minors, Dickerson hit .287 with 11 homers in 349 at-bats and stole 26 bases in Triple A in 2008. In previous years, he displayed similar power and speed, but his batting average was scary (.236 in ‘05, .242 in ‘06). He also swings and misses more than a blind prize fighter (e.g. 162 strikeouts in 468 at-bats in 2007). Expect him to struggle with his average in ‘09, but he could be a cheap source of power and speed.
The late rounds of a draft are a great time to gamble on players with upside. Instead of merely drafting a player who won’t hurt you, consider drafting one of these players — or others — who have upside. Happy hunting.
h2h Corner ~ Keep, Trade or Drop
March 28, 2009
Time for the latest edition of the game show that is sweeping America like Who Wants to be a Millionaire did back in 1999, the year of Ivan Rodriguez, the New York Yankees and Livin’ La Vida Loca. You guessed it, Keep Trade or Drop.
Did You Know…?
Only 13 starting pitchers averaged a K per inning? Or that this list includes: Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo, Ricky Nolasco, Jorge de la Rosa, and Jonathan Sanchez?
Polls
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